Analyses June 30, 2026
The 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections
The U.S. midterm elections take place on November 3, 2026, when all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are contested, alongside two Senate special elections. The campaign is shaped by two opposing forces: first, the traditional midterm headwind against the governing party, intensified by higher fuel prices following the Iran war and a deteriorating economic mood; second, the mid-decade redistricting encouraged by the Trump administration, which may give the Republican Party a structural advantage in the House. Because these effects pull in opposite directions, the outcome is more uncertain than usual.